Investment.com – Investors should still be warned, although the relief wave after announcing the trade agreement between the United States and China earlier this month, according to the analysts of the Capital's economy.
In one note for customers, analysts under the leadership of Nile Shires claimed that recent signs of discharge in global trade tensions were fragile, with some hot spots of the return.
US President Donald Trump announced great tasks to some countries in early April, aggravating fears related to global growth prospects. However, the White House has recently calmed its more difficult measures, postponing Trump's “reaction” tasks for 90 days.
The Trump administration also announced an agreement with China, of which at least 145%of tariffs increased. Beijing answered with his mission with the amount of 125%.
Both countries agreed to reduce and postpone their appropriate tasks, which caused optimism that Trump's trading agenda may not be as active as the top scared.
However, these agreements are still temporary, economic analysts of capital note, adding that the tariffs will be suspended for most countries to return to operation in early July and Chinese missions will continue in August.
If the tasks return to the level of April 2 – Trump's announcement of “Liberation Day” – the US tariff rate will increase to seven percentage points, analysts predict.
“The result is more likely that these provisions will be simply expanded. But even if the extensions are provided, the market may encounter the fluctuations of fluctuations, because the government will bring negotiations to the last moment,” they wrote.
Even if there is no action of the mission from April 2, according to some estimates, the proportion of effective tariffs has been at the highest level since the 1930s. The universal 10% tariff is still in strength, as well as tasks for goods such as steel, aluminum and automatic parts.
Trump will introduce an increasing tax rate to trading partners, believed to not negotiate “dedicated”, Minister of Finance Scott Immoture last weekend.
Immentine told NBC News “meeting the press” that the Trump administration focused on the 18 most important trade relations, adding that the deadline to conclude whether transactions may depend on whether countries negotiate with good faith. Those who do not do this will receive a letter notifying them about the new price, he said.
Economic analysts said new agreements with Canada and Mexico were a clear focus of Muslims towards Washington, with the strong integration of these two countries into the US supply.
Trade negotiations with other allies seem simpler and some messages show that transactions with Korea, Australia and India are probably done in one form or another, they said.
However, negotiations with the European Union – the previous goal of Trump trade anger – more complicated. Analysts said that the EU transaction surplus with the United States combined with the “treatment style based on consensus” can complicate the conclusions of a transaction transaction, analysts said.
A agreement with Japan also seemed not easy to achieve, they said, especially because this country requires significant reduction in automobile tariffs.
Although there are some recent exceptions, a number of specific fields may also be at risk, while potential tariffs for semiconductors can attack the economies of countries like Malaysia and Vietnam. Analysts said pharmaceutical taxes can also attack main exporters like Ireland and Switzerland, analysts said.
“(H) ASH. The base scenario is still in such a way that the last tariff regime will be the same as today: Increase, but the task is moderate for most trading partners, but the tax rate is significantly higher for Chinese goods,” analyst said.
“However, this assumption is based on a fragile platform – no less important, that the president continues to listen to a more peaceful voice. If this balance is changed, the ceasefire agreement may collapse.”
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