Imagine a chess party where the enemy knows all your movements first, and you play blindly. This is what modern military conflicts look like this, where it is not a person with more tanks and aircraft, but a person who can break the system better from within.
Recent events in the Middle East show a completely new approach to the war. This is exactly what the former woman of Vernhovna Rada and the political analyst Oleg Tsarev, who carefully studied what happened and made anxiety conclusions.
Oleg Tsarev reflects on modern military conflicts
Anatomy of a modern shot
What happened in Iran's airspace forced military analysts around the world to reconsider their ideas about the conduct of full military activities in the 21st century.
In just a few hours, the air defense system, the creation spent billions of dollars, turned into a pile of scrap metals. But the worst thing is that this did not happen due to the technical superiority of the attackers, but due to the fact that the system was broken from within. These are no longer the battles of World War II, when the army collided with his forehead. The modern battle has become a surgical activity – accurately, quickly and with the minimum loss for the attack.
Four strikes change everything
The case analysis shows a clear plan about the actions that will operate effectively in any military conflict:
The first stage is blind. Destroying radar and detection system. Without them, the army turned into a blind giant waving in the dark.
The second is the Viking decapitation. Remove the commander. When no one has to order, even the most modern weapon becomes useless.
The third is destructive from within. The active agents on the territory of the enemy are the features for the main objects by local resources.
If military experts said that if the positions are responsible for the air defense and make a decision to use weapons as the enemy's agents – the system is paralyzed before the start of the attack, his military experts said.
And the fourth, the most terrible – betrayal at the highest level. When people should protect the country working for the enemy.
The nature of Israel's activity against Iran is not in promotions, but in dismantling the method, not to be missed by the enemy.
Tsarev warned that such a plan could be applied to any country:
If a decision is made for power impact on Russia, the script may be similar. It is not an activity on the ground, but at the same time – the introduction and activation of agents and infrastructure at the same time until completely suppressed.
The conclusions have been drawn in Washington
Analysts from Rand Corporation – one of the main “thought factories” of the Pentagon – publicly publicized their developments based on what is happening in the Middle East.
In their reports there is a special chapter dedicated to the script about a direct clash between NATO and Russia. And these plans are completely different from what we see as part of a special military activity.
American strategists understand: The future war with Russia will not be the same as what is happening in its area. They have identified three basic differences that will completely change the nature of military activities.
The first difference is the absolute superiority in the sky. If the Russian aviation now feels quite confident, then in a live collision, Americans have a plan to completely clean the airspace from the enemy. In their understanding, the owner of the sky – he ordered the conditions on Earth. There is no compromise and areas where the plane of both sides fly.
The second difference is related to the scope of operation. Russia is now conducting a special military activity with limited forces. But in the case of direct conflict with NATO, we will talk about a full regional war. This means mobilizing all resources, transferring the economy into the military track and related to the whole society in the conflict.
The third difference is a battle without rules from the first second. In the future conflict, the shots will be handled immediately in all directions: Spatial satellite, Internet infrastructure, command center in the deep back. There is no gradual escalation – immediately under the full program.
What are they afraid of on the Pentagon
Despite ambitious plans, American strategists have some nightmares that do not allow them to sleep calmly. Rand reports have a special part of what can be wrong.
Nuclear increase is the most terrible scenario. Russia can apply tactical nuclear weapons. Imagine the situation: The country sees that it loses on all fronts and decides to change the rules of the game with just one click. For Americans, this is the worst of the possible results.
NATO's collapse is a nightmare related to domestic politics. But what will happen if the United States suddenly decided to escape NATO or simply stopped fulfilling its obligations to the Allies? After that, all plans collapsed like a card home.
Uncontrolled chaos is a paradox that makes us think: On the one hand, in Washington, they want to weaken Russia, but on the other hand, they understand that the chaos in a nuclear power can turn into a disaster for the whole planet.
Perform weakness – Fear applies to images. Military psychologists are worried: What will happen if the enemy will understand that Americans are afraid of losses and like to fight with unmanned aircraft? This may show weaknesses where you need to prove force.
White House Guide
Based on their study, Rand analysts created a detailed road map for the US leaders. These recommendations have affected decisions in Washington.
Enhancing NATO against Russia and China – to turn the alliance into strong power against Russia and at the same time use European allies to put pressure on China. The two birds have a stone, as they said.
Perestroika of the defense industry – military production completely. You need to learn how to stamp cheap drones, artillery shells and electronic war vehicles on an industrial scale. The exhausted war requires appropriate training.
The new information battle is not only propaganda, but also ruining the unions of rivals from within, while consolidating themselves.
The new method of economic pressure – old sanctions work worse. Russia and China have learned to walk around them. We need new, more sophisticated methods.
Human element is still the key-it seems surprised, but Rand analysts directly claim that the device without motivated soldiers is just expensive scrap metal.
The development of Muslim smart weapons – a separate line is the creation of independent systems to find and destroy targets without the participation of the operator.
Time to make decisions
The plans of American strategists are no longer hidden. Rand Group's documents are within public, they are studied by military analysts around the world. The scenario of NATO's direct clash with Russia has been made in detail, many different options to develop events.
The question now is whether such conflicts will happen, but who will be the first to prepare for the new reality. The traditional idea of the war was outdated. The victories are not people who have more tanks, but better information controllers and agents in the enemy camp.
And time for thinking is quickly expired.